FOOTBALL CLUB WORLD

"Week 37 - The Penultimate Week" is here, and while I'm sure there's still plenty of excitement left from a fantasy football standpoint as you try to hold on to/stage a late fightback for top spot in your Blog Leagues/Private Groups, the top of the Premier is more-or-less decided.

Man Utd are almost home and dry - with just a point required from either Blackburn or Blackpool to seal their 19th title, it's theirs. Man City secured the final Champions League spot last night so that's done, while in-form Liverpool are set to usurp Spurs to the final Europa League place.

I never want Spurs to lose and I'm feeling really down about the end to a season that promised so much (9 points from the last 10 games is relegation form btw), but I won't be disappointed if we don't have to take part in that muddled mess of a competition next season. The majority of Liverpool fans I know don't want the distraction either.

So anyway, that's the top pretty much sorted, but that doesn't mean there isn't huge drama still to be found in these closing weeks. I'm not talking about this weekend's FA Cup Final between City & Stoke, or even the Champions League Final on May 28th between Barca & Utd; it's the 6 teams fighting for their lives at the foot of the Premier League table.

If you narrowly miss out on a title, finish 5th and miss the Champions League or lose in a Cup Final, it hurts, but there is no greater devastation than relegation. Look at sides like Southampton, Charlton, Leeds & Sheff United; dropping out of the Premier League started a major decline, down not one, but two leagues in quick succession. It's scary - your best players will be sold, no more big wages or transfer fees, far less TV money, smaller crowds. Some clubs come back from it, but some can be (and have been) badly damaged, so when you think about it there really is no bigger prize than staying up.

Blackburn, Birmingham, Wolves, Blackpool, Wigan & West Ham are the sides who could still go down. Blackburn & Birmingham sit on 39 points, 3 points above the drop-zone with a better goal difference than teams below them, so they have a bit of breathing space, but it's going to be so tight between the current bottom four. Here are their fixtures for the teams...

Blackburn (39 points) - Man Utd, @Wolves
Birmingham (39 points) - Fulham, @ Spurs
Wolves (37 points) - @Sunderland, Blackburn
Blackpool (36 points) - Bolton, @Man Utd
Wigan (36 points) - West Ham, @Stoke
West Ham (33 points) - @Wigan, Sunderland

When you look at those fixtures it's hard to know what's going to happen, but you'd think West Ham are all-but-gone. They're rock bottom & 4 points from safety, so it must be two wins for 39 points to give them any hope. That still may not be enough, so sadly I think it's over for them.

As for Birmingham, Wigan, Wolves & Blackpool, they will all feel they can win their remaining home game, but Blackburn face United, so they could find themselves right back in serious trouble.

The final day of the season is always a lottery, but I'm going to make my bold predictions: Birmingham (Draw,Draw), Wolves (Draw,Win) & Wigan (Win,Draw) will get out of trouble, so Blackburn (Loss,Loss), Blackpool (Win,Loss) & West Ham (Loss,Win) to go down.

It's guess work of course, there will be more twists and we don't how things will end. All we can be sure of is three teams will be relegated and it will damage those teams and hurt their fans, far more than any Chelsea/Arsenal/Spurs fans have been hurt this season.

I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on who will go down/survive?

Moving on to an overall look at this week's fixtures...

Stand-Outs
MAN UTD @ Blackburn
CHELSEA v Newcastle
ARSENAL v Villa
MAN CITY v Stoke

Man Utd need a point to seal the title but I'm sure they'll win, while the other sides are playing their final home game of the season and will want to put on a show for the home fans (usually open games with plenty of attacking points available).

Should-Win
LIVERPOOL v Spurs
WIGAN v West Ham
BLACKPOOL v Bolton

I think the three home teams here all have a great chance of wins, Spurs & Bolton are struggling while I'm not sure West Ham have anything left, especially away from home.

Draws/Close
Sunderland v Wolves
Birmingham v Fulham
West Brom v Everton

Draw, Draw, Draw.

I'll add, it's a fair point to think it's better to pick players with something to play for, and I'm tipping a lot of the relegation threatened teams to win during the run in, but I still thinks these could be tight, nervy affairs, lots of bookings and not a lot of goals. Of course, the major risk for the "stand-out" teams with nothing to play is that they may rest/rotate some players, so team news will be really important on Friday. It's up to you which way you go!

Players...

KEEPERS
Van Der Sar
Carson

DEFENDERS
Vermaelen
Kolarov
Fabio
Skrtel
Luiz
Figueroa
Heitinga
Caldwell
Craddock

MIDFIELDERS
Lampard
Nani
Adam
Walcott
Valencia
Kuyt
N'Zogbia
Silva
Hitzlsperger
Thomas
M.Taylor
O'Hara

STRIKERS
Van Persie
Suarez
Drogba/Torres
Hernandez/Berbatov
Sturridge
Odemwingie
Rodallega
DJ Campbell

I'll get some analysis done for the players tonight or tomorrow.

My own team is still as it was on Monday:

Carson, Craddock, Figueroa, Vermaelen, Hitzlsperger, Valencia, Silva, Lampard, Suarez, Van Persie, Drogba

As mentioned earlier, team news is going to be vital this week, so please check back for the Update post on Friday. Fabio, Nani, Adam, N'Zogbia, Torres & DJ Campbell are all still in my thoughts to come in but it will depend on what we hear from the managers!

I'll leave it there for now - please let me know how your team is shaping up.

Cheers,
AM